What Are the Odds?

One of the great things about writing a blog and running a Diamondbacks fan site is that you get to sometimes meet some very interesting people. It is always cool to find others who are as passionate about the Diamondbacks or baseball as I am. Some of these people will leave comments and let me know their thoughts about the team, its players, or the stadium. Some will send me an email and let me know about other cool sites that I might be interested. Some will try to sell me generic versions of Viagra or offer me investment opportunities for helping them get money from corrupt government officials in Africa. One thing is for sure, it is always an adventure when you open up your email client.


Recently I received an email from a fellow baseball fan who had started a web site where he attempts to determine which teams have the best chance of making the play-offs. Since we are now only 7 weeks away from the post season everyone’s attention is turning to what I am calling the Hunt for Sedona Red October. With the Diamondbacks two games up on the San Diego Padres with 42 games remaining I had wondered what the odds were of Arizona going back to the play-offs for the first time since 2002. Based on past experience I had mentally calculated that I thought it would take 90 wins to be the National League Western Divisional champion. That was just a gut feel based on what I saw unfolding and I had no way of telling whether that number was accurate or not; at least not until now.

Sports Club Stats attempts to assist fans in putting some statistical analysis against remaining games to determine the probability of any given team making the play-offs. Navigating to the Arizona Diamondbacks page shows that after the debacle of last night that the team still has a 74 percent chance of making the play-offs. In fact they still have the best chance of any team in the National League of getting to October baseball (even if the difference is only 0.1 percent over the Mets). It’s a fun site that shows how the percentages for a specific team changes depending on the outcome not only of their game but also the outcomes of the games of others in the play-off hunt. The site is worth a bookmark and an occasional check to see how the Diamondbacks are doing. Next time someone asks, “What are the odds that the Diamondbacks would be in the play-offs when they have the third youngest team in the National League” you can reply “74 percent!”


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